
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 2024, agreed on the Baku Climate Unity Pact, which includes decisions on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), Mitigation Work Programme (MWP), and Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). At the second week of COP29, the G20 Summit was held in Brazil, producing the Leaders’ Declaration, which outlines, among others, the G20's position regarding to global climate change, particularly related to the UNFCCC process and climate finance mobilization.
Decisions made at these international forums inevitably affect the dynamics of global energy and climate actions, including Indonesia. Recognizing this, the Indonesia Research Institute for Decarbonization (IRID) held a discussion on 19 December 2024 under the theme of ‘Status of Global Climate Diplomacy and Its Impacts to Indonesia’.
State of the Climate in 2024
At COP29, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its provisional State of Climate 2024 report. The report highlights that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, breaking the previous record set in 2023. This marks an unprecedented phenomenon of two consecutive record-breaking warm years. The report reveals that between January and September 2024, the global average temperature has reached 1,54°C above pre-industrial level . Despite efforts under international climate regime , such as the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, and Paris Agreement, the concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere continues to rise.
As climate transition happens, climate patterns and ecosystem responses have shifted, which are overwhelmingly unprecedented. For instance, an observation of a forest in the northern part of the globe shows that it released more CO2 than it absorbed which shows that there’s a limit for forest to absorb CO2. Such alterations in our ecosystem due to climate change can lead to inaccuracies in climate projections. More ambitious climate actions globally, reducing our vulnerability to climate change impacts, become more important than before.
The report reminds the world that climate and its impacts occurred due to the GHG concentrations in the atmosphere, rather than emission reduction efforts that are committed.
In Indonesia, GHG concentration is also rising at a ratio of 2 ppm/year (BMKG , 2024) . The shrinking Jayawijaya glacier is one of the apparent impacts of climate change on the country. One of the required adaptation measures that Indonesia must consider is to harvest rainwater during the rainy season to prepare for prolonged droughts. Additionally, as a tropical country, Indonesia needs to monitor its forests and plantations not only for productivity, but also for their ecosystem’s responses to climate change.
The Implementation of Indonesia’s Climate Commitment in the Energy Sector
In its Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC), Indonesia has committed to reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector by 358 MtCO2eq by 2030 with its own efforts. In 2024, the energy sector has achieved a reduction of 147,61 MtCO2eq, which was primarily driven by the development of new and renewable energy (74,73 MtCO2eq) as well as implementation of energy efficiency measures (30,25 MtCO2eq). Furthermore, Indonesia aims to contribute to global climate targets, responding to the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake from COP28, particularly in terms of tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 .
At present, Indonesia’s renewable energy mix is at 13,9%, below the target as stipulated in the National Energy General Plan. As of November 2024, Indonesia’s power sector has only used 14.110 MW of renewable energy generation, or around 0,3% of its estimated potential (KESDM, 2024). Reliable and integrated transmission and distribution grid networks are the key infrastructure to increase renewable penetration in the country’s power system.
Indonesia’s energy efficiency rate in 2024 was 1,91% of total energy consumption. The country is facing the challenge of rising energy demand due to the growth of energy-intensive downstream industries. However, it is expected that the energy efficiency activities will increase through the implementation of Government Regulation Number 33 of 2023 on Energy Conservation, both from the provider and consumer sides, particularly in the industrial sector.
Indonesia’s climate action in the energy sector still heavily focuses on mitigation. Indonesia has not yet considered how the energy sector can adapt to the climate transition. In the electricity generation for instance, the increase of global temperature and prolonged droughts can hinder renewable energy deployment, such as hydro. Climate analysis data provided by the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency offers inputs on how to optimize energy sector in the transitioning climate.
The Interaction between COP29 and G20 and Its Implications for Indonesia
The Leaders’ Declaration from the 2024 G20 Summit not only reflects the G20's aspiration for the global economy but also outlines its position on global climate action. The G20 acknowledges the urgency of scaling up mitigation action, enhancing adaptation capacity, and mobilizing climate finance and investment, especially for developing countries. The Group affirms the decisions made in the UAE Consensus, including its positive responds to the first Global Stocktake.
As a developing country, Indonesia must advocate for just global climate action, emphasizing that developing countries are still facing the challenges in eradicate poverty and energy security on top of reducing the GHG emissions. Indonesia, alongside other developing nations, calls for the fulfillment of developed nations’ commitment to provide means of implementation for developing countries to achieve climate targets, particularly the climate finance support that does not add more debt burdens to developing countries.
[1] Kenaikan suhu rata-rata global diperkirakan mencapai 1,54oC dengan margin of error ±0.13°C di atas tingkat pra-revolusi industri, yang berarti kenaikan suhu aktual dapat berada di antara 1,41°C dan 1,67°C.
[2] Satu set peraturan, prinsip, prosedur yang mengatur interaksi antar aktor internasional dalam isu perubahan iklim.
[3] Berdasarkan pengamatan yang dilakukan di Stasius Pemantau Atmosfer Global (Global Atmosphere Watch/GAW) Bukit Kototabang.
[4] Decision 1/CMA.5 Outcomes of the first global stocktake, paragraf 28(a). Dapat diakses melalui: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/1_CMA.5.pdf
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